The Deliberate Owl

What will the world be like in two decades? Or in a century? Have you ever tried to imagine it? Yes, it's impossible to predict black swan events—unpredictable and rare by definition, but with severe consequences—but I try to examine current trends and extrapolate them out into the future, so I can prepare and do the best by my children.

Eight current trends

For example, here are some current trends that I see.

1. Racial tensions are growing. Racial tension is constantly stoked by the media. Stories about racial violence are amplified and drilled into our heads 24/7, but only if it fits the media's preferred narrative. White man kills black man? Convervative Christian kills someone? You hear about it every day. Black man kills black man? Muslim kills someone? Total silence.
2. The quality of information is degrading. Lots of fake news and dishonest narrative-pushing journalists, memes shared without fact-checking, hundreds of near-identical articles online that were clearly copy-pasted meaning that you only see one article again and again while it masquerades as consensus, etc.
3. Anti-Christian sentiment is growing. Being a Bible-believing Christian who adheres to what Christians have always believed is being called “hate speech” and is a fireable offence in many big corporations. Governments worldwide have already criminalized Christian gatherings due to COVID, declaring them “unnecessary” and “dangerous”.
4. Monetary policy has shifted. Domestic monetary policy has steadily shifted toward Modern Monetary Theory, the notion that the Fed can basically print as much money as they want without consequence. Federal spending seems to be increasing exponentially. Interest rates keep being pushed to their minimums. Things are getting more expensive.
5. "The elites" are not trusted. The Trump phenomenon demonstrates that a large number of Americans no longer trust “the elites” to govern. Faith in institutions has cratered. Populism is on the rise. There are increasing political and social divisions between rural and city people.
6. Birth rates are declining. There are many factors contributing to decreasing birth rates in developed nations. For example, the number of people who identify as "not straight", whether lesbian, gay, bisexual, non-binary, transgender, or some other variant has absolutely exploded. I'll avoid the psycho-analysis here and just consider the implications. Fundamentally, it's a rejection of traditional sexuality and the roles played by men and women. It also means fewer of them are having children.
7. We are increasingly unhealthy. The food, work environments, and digital addiction of modern life is making us increasingly unhealthy and disconnected from nature. Both in physical terms and spiritual. For example, relatively modern diseases such as Celiac disease, Multiple Sclerosis, and other unexplained medical conditions appear to be increasing rapidly, and have been for decades.
8. Religious demographics are shifting. Evangelical and traditional Catholic Christians are growing while every other Christian demographic is shrinking. Traditional Catholics in particular are exploding due to their rejection of any form of birth control. These families are each having at least six children, and I know some with 10 or 14 who are still going.

Almost all of these trends are negative, which doesn't bode well for our future.

Eight current trends, extrapolated

Now I'll take those same trends in the same order and make a guess about where it might lead decades from now. I make no claim that these are accurate, but it illustrated the mental process I use to get myself thinking about the future.

1. Racial tensions are growing. Will there be race wars? Segregation? Lots of race-targeted crime? Areas with lots of racial diversity may not be safe.
2. The quality of information is degrading. Will it be near-impossible to agree on what's true, when anyone can point to a seemingly authoritative source that says what he wants to hear? Will reasoned argument be a thing of the past? How will conflicts be resolved without reason?
3. Anti-Christian sentiment is growing. Will traditional Christians face severe persecution and imprisonment for basic Christian beliefs? Will we have underground Masses and pastors in prison? Will we be able to hold a normal job without violating our beliefs?
4. Monetary policy has shifted. Will we have runaway hyperinflation? Will the US dollar collapse? Will the economy cease to function?
5. "The elites" are not trusted. Will there be some kind of revolt as the ruling elites continue to crush normal Americans into submission by telling us that we aren't essential and when we can and can't work? Will the money they keep “giving” everyone buy off the population? If there is a revolt, will it be violent? Will we live under martial law?
6. Birth rates are declining. Will our population collapse for lack of children? What will that do to our infrastructure and spending, which require significant growth to be maintained? The Social Security Ponsi scheme will be totally insolvent without a rapidly growing population. And what will it be like to walk through a city that totally rejects the differences between and roles of the sexes? Will it be a safe place for children, or will there be no one to protect them? It seems that child abuse of every kind thrives without strong families.
7. We are increasingly unhealthy. If our physical health continues to deteriorate, our medical expenses will increase and our ability to be independent and live on our own will decrease. Will we become sefs slaving for the benefit of biomedical corporations who sustain us with an ever-growing supply of vaccines, antibiotics, and pills?
8. Religious demographics are shifting. This one actually seems hopeful. Will traditional communities flourish and pop-up everywhere? Will they be havens from the craziness of the world? Children are the future, and the struggle between those who raise their own and those who indoctrinate the children of others is real. Who will win this war? Will traditional communities be able to sufficiently protect their children from the wolves of the world?

My extrapolations paint a dreary picture, but that dreary picture may very well be the world my children inherit. How do I protect them and set them up for success—or at least for survival?

How to prepare for our children's future

Here are some of my takeaways for what I need to do to prepare for where the trends above are taking us.

1. Racial tensions are growing. Live in an area with little racial diversity. I know this is going to offend some people, but I'm not commenting on races or even diversity itself here; merely saying that if there's going to be a race war, I'd rather keep my children far away from any potential violence.
2. The quality of information is degrading. Unplug from the media and constant news as much as is practical. Build in myself and my children a strong sense of independence and prudent judgement to be better able to think for ourselves and notice when something feels wrong or doesn't fit with our experience.
3. Anti-Christian sentiment is growing. Prepare my children for suffering and martyrdom for the Faith. A lot of this comes down to religious instruction and modeling virtue in my own life. Also living in a strong Christian community will give them the social capital to survive when no one else welcomes them. I must teach my sons the value of hard labor, because there may be few jobs open to them. Better to be virtuous and poor than to sacrifice your principles for worldly success.
4. Monetary policy has shifted. Being able to pass on a measure of wealth is important here, but it has to be something robust against economic collapse. Real estate and entrepreneurial companies are my preferred options. Some basic survival and independence skills are also good. My children should know how to hunt, fish, garden, sow and knit, and reuse things in clever ways. Being plugged into a good community is also vital.
5. "The elites" are not trusted. Political unrest is hard to prepare for, but I'd say living away from big cities and being well-armed is important. An area that can be relatively self-sufficient would be good; farmland, forest, rivers, etc.
6. Birth rates are declining. Protecting children in a society that rejects their very creation is no simple task; there will be more predators. I need to be far away from big cities and trade routes to avoid child trafficking. I need to be very careful about who my children spend time with, but I also can't be a helicopter parent. I'll need to shield them from much of society's influence so they have proper role models and learn appropriate roles for men and women in a healthy society.
7. We are increasingly unhealthy. To keep my family healthy, we should live in as natural a way as is practical. Not the total rejection of modern medicine, but the careful use of it. We can avoid the routine blasting of antibiotics that destroys one's microbiome, and the Big Pharma experiments, including at least some vaccines. We should avoid processed foods and spend time in nature and around animals. We should allow their natural immunity to build and not sterilize everything. I should also plan for unforeseen medical expenses down the road in the event my children develop some chronic medical problem.
8. Religious demographics are shifting. I should make sure my family is involved in a traditional community now, and build social capital through enduring friendships and community ties. If my family can be a trusted member of such a community, then we'll be a lot better off.

A couple things jump out at me from this list. First, living away from major metropolitan areas is a recurring factor. Whether it's civil unrest, food shortages, or a zombie apocalypse, big cities are not a good place to be. Small towns and rural areas are much more robust against any kind of major disruption. Especially if you're in an area dominated by people who are similar to you—politically, culturally, religiously, or racially.

Second, it's important to be tied to a good community and have lots of close friendships. The social capital you get is by far the biggest factor in successfully dealing with adversity and any kind of emergency. We've found that already, where we live in northern Idaho. For example, when we were having our third child, multiple different families offered to take care of our older two children, and for two weeks after we came home a different family brought us a prepared meal each day.

If there's suddenly some large-scale disaster like nuclear war, I have at least ten close friends who would band together and gladly die for each other. Our families would be taken care of. Outside that circle, there are many more people I can count on for generous help, and they can all count on me. If you are reading this and the concept sounds foreign to you, then you need to join a strong community and be a generous member. If you give of yourself without thought of anything in return, you'll find that others will do the same for you.

The third theme I see is stepping back from society at large. When the culture is sick, you have to keep your distance—as Rod Dreher has argued in his books The Benedict Option and Live Not By Lies. The sicker it is, the more you have to separate yourself and especially your children from it.

Giving your children a proper childhood and healthy role models in a decaying society is no easy task, but it's a goal every parent should hold. In the end, we should always do what's best for our children, even if that means suffering for it now. Maybe it means moving to a different part of the country, sacrificing a second income to homeschool, or taking a lower-paying job to avoid compromising your principles.

If there will be suffering, let us suffer it now in order that our children might be spared.